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Turmoil Timeline: Here's How US & West Messed Up Afghanistan Evacuation_我的网站

一 | On the one-year anniversary of US forces’ hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan after a 20-year deployment, there is renewed focus on the decision-making made by the Joe Biden administration that resulted in the swift fall of the Afghan government and the eventual return to power of the Taliban* Islamist group.,With the Democratic POTUS’ approval rating hitting historic lows and eating away at his party’s November midterm prospects, it is commonly believed that his handling of the Afghan crisis at the time of the pull-out created the momentum that began to drag down Americans’ confidence in Biden’s leadership.,The United States-led military offensive "Operation Enduring Freedom" was originally launched by former US President George W. Bush in pursuit of terrorists from Al Qaeda** - including leader Osama bin Laden - for masterminding the September 11, 2001 attacks in the US.,At the time, a series of four coordinated terrorist attacks by the Islamist terrorist group Al Qaeda killed 2,996 people in the US as hijackers crashed two planes into the World Trade Center, hijacking another that failed to reach its target, crashing in Shanksville, Pa., and a third that struck the west side of the Pentagon.,© AP Photo / AMY SANCETTASmoke billows from the North and South Towers of the World Trade Center before they collapsed on September 11, 2001 in New York, NYSmoke billows from the North and South Towers of the World Trade Center before they collapsed on September 11, 2001 in New York, NY© AP Photo / AMY SANCETTA,After suspicion fell onto Al Qaeda, the United States responded by launching the War on Terror and invading Afghanistan under the pretext that the Taliban had failed to comply with Washington’s demands to expel Al Qaeda from the country and extradite the terrorist group’s leader, Osama bin Laden. American-led forces overthrew the Kabul-based Taliban government, which had been in control of large parts of the country since 1996.,Bin Laden was eventually killed nearly a decade later, in 2011, by a group of Navy SEALs who raided his compound in Pakistan. As Washington's attempt to impose Western ideas and forms of government on the country increasingly failed and the situation deteriorated for the Western-backed government in Kabul, the Donald Trump administration opened peace talks with the Taliban.,In February 2020, the Donald Trump administration signed an agreement in Doha, Qatar, between the US and the Taliban on drawing down US involvement based on a "reduction in violence." The "Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan" set out a series of commitments from the US and the Taliban regarding troop levels, counterterrorism, and intra-Afghan dialogue seeking to bring about "a permanent and comprehensive ceasefire.",The deal stipulated a deadline of May 1 the next year for all US troops to leave the country.,However, in April 2021, President Joe Biden, just seven months into his presidency, unilaterally deviated from the peace deal by extending the timeframe to September 11 and ordered all troops to withdraw from the country by an end of August 2021 deadline, with his decision triggering chaos and bloodshed.,‘Failed Intel’,As the US military began their pull-out, sending home troops and equipment, the emboldened Taliban proceeded with a lightening-swift onslaught. They took over huge swathes of the country, facing little resistance and picking up weapons and vehicles paid for by the US government which Afghan government troops left behind.,US 'Lost Track' of Afghan War Aims, Says Retired Marine General12 August, 17:00 GMT,Afghan officials, including the country’s president, Ashraf Ghani, fled, as the country’s capital, Kabul, was taken over by the militants on August 15, 2021 in a matter of hours.,None of the US intelligence assessments had predicted such a swift collapse, with American officials insisting in June that Kabul could capitulate within six to 12 months after the start of the withdrawal. Amid reports of failed intel forecasts, then-Pentagon spokesman John Kirby acknowledged that security in some parts of Afghanistan was “certainly deteriorating, and that’s of concern.” Washington continued to emphasize “commitment to the people of Afghanistan” and the goal of “ensuring that Afghanistan never again becomes a safe haven for terrorist groups who pose a threat to the US homeland.”,Amid the developments, the Biden administration debated whether to delay the American departure from Bagram Air Base, 35 miles north of Kabul, but eventually opted to go ahead. Army Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, had told the House Armed Services Committee that “it is not necessary for the United States to stay at Bagram for what we’re going to try to do here with Afghanistan.”,Civilians Caught in Crossfire,As the Taliban regained full control, more than 120,000 people, including Afghans and foreigners, were frantically evacuated in a vast airlift operation from Kabul International airport. Thousands of Afghan citizens desperately sought to flee the country in fear of the Islamist group’s return to rule.,Exclusive- A clear video (from other angle) of men falling from C-17. They were Clinging to some parts of the plane that took off from Kabul airport today. #Talibans #Afghanistan #Afghanishtan pic.twitter.com/CMNW5ngqrK— Aśvaka - آسواکا News Agency (@AsvakaNews) August 16, 2021,Searing images from the capital’s airport showed desperate people trying to cling to the wings of planes that were taking off amid the huge airlift operation. Many Afghans who collaborated with the occupying US forces and feared retribution from the Islamist group were left behind in the hasty evacuation. Between 100 and 200 Americans remained in Afghanistan, despite wanting to get out.,© AP Photo / Wali SabawoonSmoke rises from a deadly explosion outside the airport in Kabul, Afghanistan, Thursday, Aug. 26, 2021. Smoke rises from a deadly explosion outside the airport in Kabul, Afghanistan, Thursday, Aug. 26, 2021. © AP Photo / Wali Sabawoon,Furthermore, 13 US troops were killed on August 26 in a suicide bomb attack blamed on an Afghan offshoot of Daesh***.,The explosive device detonated by a single bomber who was able to approach Kabul International Airport's Abbey Gate killed at least 170 Afghan civilians and 13 US service members. The bomber was not stopped as Afghans had begun using alternate routes to the gate due to the difficulty of getting through Taliban checkpoints.,In another deadly incident that marred the withdrawal, a botched US drone strike killed 10 civilians - seven of them children - on August 29.,WorldCIA Reportedly Warned US Military of Likely Presence of Children Near Afghan Drone Strike Target 19 September 2021, 08:56 GMT,The US claimed it had been targeting a Daesh operative with a car full of explosives linked to the terrorist group’s affiliate, planning an imminent attack on American forces during the final days of the evacuation. However, the man turned out to be a longtime Afghan aid worker, Zamarai Ahmadi, employed by Nutrition and Education International, a nongovernmental organization focused on food security.,Approximately three weeks after the strike, the military acknowledged its "tragic mistake," yet a subsequent Air Force review around the strike found "no violation of law, including the law of war.",The last US aircraft left Kabul on August 30, 2021.,AfghanistanKirby Under Fire After He 'Takes Issue With Premise' US Handed Afghanistan to 'Terrorist Group'3 August, 09:54 GMT,Joe Biden’s administration faced bipartisan criticism for the Afghan withdrawal.,On August 17, just two days after the fall of Kabul, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan promised the White House would “conduct an extensive hot wash” and “look at every aspect of this from top to bottom.” But it remains unclear when any progress will be made by the congressionally-ordered bipartisan 16-member commission on the 20-year Afghan war, US media reported.,NBC News: Biden Admin Prepping Unified Message on Anniversary of Botched Afghan Withdrawal11 July, 16:09 GMT,The White House is believed to have geared up for congressional investigations into the Afghanistan withdrawal if Republicans win the House or the Senate in November’s midterm elections, according to sources cited in US media reports.,* The Taliban is an organization under UN sanctions over terrorist activities.,**Al-Qaeda is a terrorist group banned in Russia and many other countries.,*** Daesh, also known as ISIS/IS/Islamic State, is a terrorist group banned in Russia.。

二 | 来自美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的压力，要求全球领先的芯片制造商台积电在美国生产先进半导体，这导致他们成本上升，利润空间缩小。特朗普在 2025 年重返政坛后，曾多次威胁要对不在美国生产产品的公司征收关税。

三 | 此后，台积电已宣布对该国总计2000亿美元的投资承诺，其中包括上周公布的在美国投资1000亿美元用于建设先进半导体制造和封装设施。

四 | 台积电表示，尽管人工智能热潮提振了公司业绩——过去 12 个月，台积电的市值增长超过 100%——但本季度强劲的盈利却受到海外扩张的影响。

五 | 台积电首席财务官黄文德在财报电话会议上表示，毛利率增长超出预期，但被海外晶圆厂带来的利润稀释所抵消。他还补充说，随着海外晶圆厂项目“逐步推进”，未来“几年”毛利率将进一步被稀释。 “特朗普总统的领导力正在推动企业投资美国制造业，”商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克在一份声明中表示。 “继我们与中国台湾达成历史性的贸易和投资协议后，台积电宣布追加1000亿美元的投资，这将创造数万个美国就业岗位，并将先进的半导体制造业带回美国。

六 | ” 其他亚洲芯片制造商，包括SK海力士，也纷纷加入竞争。投资美国，台积电陷入两难在众多企业中，台积电在美国的投资规模最大。

七 | 其在美国的积极扩张使其面临更高的生产成本，这可能会对利润率构成潜在不利影响。台积电周四公布，第二季度利润同比增长77.4%，远超预期，这家全球最大的芯片代工制造商又创下了一个季度的纪录。

八 | 台积电的黄告诉 CNBC，该公司在美国也正积极扩张，因为公司持续看到客户提出的“多年需求大趋势”。

九 | 政治压力是推动海外扩张的另一个关键因素。白宫发言人告诉CNBC：“台积电和其他半导体公司数万亿美元的投资是特朗普总统贸易和经济政策的结果，从与中国台湾达成的历史性贸易协议到重新谈判的芯片法案投资。” 在美国建造房屋的成本要高得多。晨星公司高级股票分析师李菲利（Phelix Lee）告诉CNBC：“总体而言，我们估计台积电在美国生产的芯片成本比中国台湾生产的芯片高出20%至50%，具体价格取决于补贴到位时间、税收抵免确认以及其他成本波动。” 李菲利补充说，他预计客户将承担更多更高的生产成本。据《日经新闻》周二报道，台积电计划在2027年将先进芯片和成熟芯片的生产价格上调至多10%。台积电告诉CNBC，公司不对定价问题置评。 Gartner副总裁分析师Gaurav Gupta告诉CNBC：“台积电的优势在于缺乏实质性的竞争。

十 | ” Gupta表示，由于台积电在尖端节点市场占据主导地位，“增加的成本很大一部分将不得不由其客户承担，这些客户要么正在寻求多元化发展，要么受到美国政府的强制要求购买本地芯片。” 黄先生表示，公司预计未来几年海外晶圆厂产能提升带来的毛利率稀释，初期将达到 2% 至 3%，后期将扩大至 3% 至 4%。 “台积电整体利润率很高，因此能够承受这样的利润率差异，”DA Davidson技术研究主管吉尔·卢里亚表示。台积电第二季度毛利率为67.7%，略高于第一季度的66.2%。晨星公司的李表示，尽管特朗普加倍呼吁发展本土制造业，“但在新冠疫情扰乱全球供应链之后，客户越来越倾向于寻求地域多元化”。他补充道：“客户正在为地缘政治、物流和其他供应链中断做好准备。

十一 | 我们预计，即使在特朗普卸任后，对美国制造的需求压力仍将持续，尽管目前尚不清楚胡萝卜加大棒的策略将如何实施。” 晶圆厂成本过高，痛苦根源据半导体文摘报道，领先的工程、建设和设计公司Exyte表示，在中国台湾建设一座晶圆厂大约需要19个月，而在美国建设一座晶圆厂则需要长达38个月的时间，原因是获得许可需要很长时间，而且晶圆厂的建设并非24小时不间断。中国台湾的晶圆厂建设周期约为19个月，新加坡和马来西亚紧随其后，耗时23个月。欧洲项目需要34个月，而美国最慢，需要38个月。

十二 | 造成这种差异的关键原因在于中国台湾简化的审批流程和全天候的施工，而美国和欧洲则面临审批延误，且无法实现全天候施工。美国已颁布法律，豁免部分美国晶圆厂接受联邦环境评估，但这显然不足以使其与中国台湾的效率相媲美。

十三 | 成本差异也很大。据Exyte公司称，尽管设备成本相近，但在美国建厂的成本大约是中国台湾的两倍。这种差异源于更高的劳动力成本、繁琐的监管要求以及供应链效率低下。此外，Exyte公司高管赫伯特·布拉希茨表示，中国台湾劳动力经验丰富，因此中国台湾的建筑商需要的详细图纸较少，因为他们熟悉流程的每个步骤，这加快了晶圆厂项目的完成速度。为了与拥有完善供应链、经验丰富的劳动力和高效监管流程的中国台湾地区有效竞争，美国和欧洲必须简化审批流程、优化施工技术并采用数字孪生等先进规划工具。

十四 | 布拉希茨建议采用“虚拟调试”方法，即在实际施工开始前创建工厂的数字模型。这有助于及早发现潜在问题，从而降低成本和环境影响，同时提高速度和效率。现代半导体生产设施规模庞大，无论从规模还是投资额来看都是如此。据介绍，一座领先的晶圆厂——例如英特尔、三星晶圆代工或台积电运营的晶圆厂——需要超过200亿美元的投资，其中仅厂房建设本身就需要40亿至60亿美元。据报道，整个建设过程需要3000万至4000万工时，使用8.3万吨钢材、5600英里长的电线和78.5万立方码混凝土。

十五 | 一个典型的晶圆厂可能包括一个4万平方米的洁净室，配备2000台用于光刻、沉积、蚀刻、清洗和其他操作的生产设备。每台设备大约需要50个独立的公用设施和工艺连接。正因这样，一个晶圆厂变得挑战重重。台积电海外厂开始赚钱虽然但是，据台媒报道，台积电包括美国厂在内的海外工厂，都纷纷挣钱了。

十六 | 根据今年第一季财报，台积电美国亚利桑那厂（TSMC Arizona）继2025年全年转亏为盈、认列获利161.41亿元后，2026年第一季获利动能续强，单季获利达188.08亿元，贡献已超越去年全年水准。日本熊本厂（JASM）也由亏转盈，第一季获利9.51亿元，台积电按持股比例认列投资收益6.91亿元，显示海外新厂随量产、稼动率提升，财务表现逐步改善。台积电近年推动全球制造布局，美国、日本、德国等海外投资案备受市场关注。其中，亚利桑那厂因建厂成本、人力成本与初期量产进度，一度被外界视为最具挑战性的海外基地。不过，2025年财报显示，TSMC Arizona已由2024年认列亏损142亿元，转为2025年获利161.41亿元，成为台积电海外设厂财务结构转变的重要讯号。最新季度数据更凸显美国厂营运放大效益。2026年第一季，TSMC Arizona当期获利188.08亿元，认列投资收益达169.09 亿元。

十七 | 市场解读，亚利桑那第一座晶圆厂于2024年第四季量产4纳米制程后，产能利用率维持高档，已让美国厂由“高成本建厂期”逐步进入“营运贡献期”。日本熊本厂同样出现转机。JASM 2025年全年仍认列亏损97.67亿元，主因初期量产、折旧及营运费用偏高；不过，2026年第一季已转为获利9.51亿元。熊本厂营运曲线明显改善，法人分析，主要与成熟制程亦进入紧俏有关。亮眼的海外厂表现，坚定台积电海外扩张脚步持续推进。据悉，台积电正以过去约两倍速度扩张产能，2025年至2026年已加速至每年约九座新厂；全球各地预计新建与改造18座晶圆厂，其中包括五座先进封测厂，以同步提升先进制程与先进封装产能。法人分析，台积电海外厂获利转正，不能单纯解读为成本压力消失，而是量产进度、客户需求与折旧摊提节奏共同作用。随美国厂单季再赚百亿元、熊本厂转亏为盈，台积电全球制造版图正由“战略投资期”迈入“营运验证期”，海外产能将在AI、高效能运算及供应链在地化趋势下，成支撑中长期成长的重要平台。但在六年投资增加22倍的背景下，台积电什么时候能重新挣钱，这值得等待。（来源：CNBC） *免责声明：本文由作者原创。文章内容系作者个人观点，半导体行业观察转载仅为了传达一种不同的观点，不代表半导体行业观察对该观点赞同或支持，如果有任何异议，欢迎联系半导体行业观察。

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